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ROC presidential election, 2008

The Election for the 12th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (Chinese: 第十二任中華民國總統副總統選舉) will be held in March 2008 (but as is customary in Taiwanese elections, the date will probably not be determined until late 2007). The election will be by direct popular vote; a simple plurality is required to win. According to the Constitution of the Republic of China, all citizens of the Republic of China of at least 20 years of age and with household registration in the "Free Area of the Republic of China" (Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.) will be eligible to vote. There is, however, ongoing discussion on lowering the voting age to 18 years and permitting absentee ballots for overseas Chinese and Taiwanese businessmen in mainland China (under the current rules, all voters must travel to their registered precincts to vote).

This is the fourth direct election for the president of the Republic of China.

Candidates

The incumbent President Chen Shui-bian is barred from running due to term limits. While the election is still years away, several persons have been speculated as potential candidates:

Pan-Green Coalition:

Pan-Blue Coalition: The Taiwan Solidarity Union, the DPP's junior partner in the Pan-Green Coalition, is not expected to name a candidate.

The ability of the Pan-Blue Coalition to name a unified ticket is less certain. In the 2000 presidential election, the KMT nominated Lien Chan and James Soong (who was expelled from the KMT and would form the PFP after the election), ran as an independent on a seperate ticket. Together they garnered 59.9% of the vote, but lost to the DPP's Chen Shui-bian who won 39.3% of the vote. This split in the electorate was widely seen to have led to Chen's victory, and in the 2004 presidential election, Lien and Soong ran on a combined ticket (with Lien for president and Soong for vice president). Though widely expected to win the election on the basis of their combined vote totals in 2000, they still lost by 0.22% of the vote.

Following the Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory over Wang Jin-pyng in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election and the KMT's landslide victory over the DPP in the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, Ma is heavily favored for the Pan-Blue nomination. With the PFP's dismal showing in the 2004 legislative election and the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, there is increasing pressure for the PFP to merge with the KMT. The PFP announced on December 12 that it would merge into the KMT in two phases, the first being completed by the end of January 2006.

The most likely scenario under which Pan-Blue is unable to field a common candidate is if Soong demands to run as president over Ma. On the eve of the 2005 chairmanship election, Soong had made a televised endorsement of Ma's opponent Wang Jin-pyng. Another scenario is if the PFP, if it has not yet merged with the KMT, demands a place on the combined ticket and the KMT refuses and decides that both presidential and vice presidential nominees should be KMT members. The third party in the Pan-Blue Coalition, the New Party, has largely integrated itself into the KMT (it fielded all but one if its members under the KMT banner in the 2004 legislative elections), and is not expected to either name its own ticket or demand to be placed on the ticket (unlike the PFP's Soong, no New Party politician has the political stature to be touted in the media as a potential presidential candidate).

Issues

As is common with Taiwanese elections, a major issue of the campaign will be over the future of the political status of Taiwan and maintaining good cross-straits relations. While the DPP favors eventual Taiwan independence and the KMT favors eventual Chinese reunification, both sides are expected to campaign for maintaining the status quo (as they did in 2004) in order to attract centrist voters. The strategy of both sides, as was the case in 2004, will be to persuade voters that it can best maintain the status quo and protect Taiwan from an invasion by the People's Republic of China.

While the TSU favors immediate moves to establish a Taiwanese state, the DPP under Chen Shui-bian has so far taken a more moderate position regarding independence. At the same time the Chen administration has moved to promote a separate Taiwanese identity and give official recognition to Taiwan's de facto independence from the mainland such as by equating Taiwan with the Republic of China. The front-runners for the DPP nomination are all considered moderates like Chen Shui-bian.

The KMT party line is against one country, two systems, but is supportive dialogue with the Communist Party of China under the "1992 Consensus." The DPP, in contrast, opposes recognizing One China (a prerequisite set by the PRC for negotiations), and no talks have occurred under the Chen administration. The KMT also supports immediately opening up the three links with mainland China, which have been stalled by the DPP administration.

Another issue to be discussed in the years before the election is constitutional reform. President Chen Shui-bian had pledged in his second inaugural address to draft a new constitution by 2006 to take effect upon the inauguration of the 12th-term president in 2008. This is opposed by the Pan-Blue Coalition, which seeks only changes through amendments to the existing document. A constitutional reform package was passed in 2005 with cross-party support, while the "Constitutional Reform Committee" proposed by President Chen to draft the new Constitution has never been formed. It appears, that with Pan-Blue controlling the Legislative Yuan until at least February 2008 (following the 2007 legislative election) and few actions being taken by the president for drafting a new Constitution, there will be no new Constitution for 2008.

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